For years, coaches and analysts have relied on Expected Goals (xG) to evaluate finishing, but there has always been one major flaw, xG ignores off-target shots. That means a shot that misses by inches is treated the same as one that sails into the stands.
That’s where RBPostXg comes in.
After reading Miss It Like Messi: Extracting Value from Off-Target Shots in Soccer by Ethan Baron, Nathan Sandholtz, Devin Pleuler, and Timothy C. Y. Chan, I realized that we’ve been missing out on a goldmine of information when it comes to training elite finishers. Off-target shots aren’t failures—they’re data points. And when you analyze them properly, you can transform a player’s efficiency in front of goal.
I put this to the test with a player I’ve been working with, and the results were undeniable.
Case Study: Fixing a Finisher with RBPostXg
A forward I’ve been coaching, let’s call her Samantha, came to me frustrated.
She was getting into great positions but wasn’t converting chances. Traditional xG suggested she was making the right decisions, but her goal tally told a different story.
So instead of just looking at her made shots, we analyzed her misses using RBPostXg.
Here’s what we found:
🔹 She wasn’t missing badly, most of her shots were just wide of the post or sailing over by small margins.
🔹 Her body positioning on first-touch finishes was slightly off, causing subtle errors in accuracy.
🔹 She favored one type of finish too often, when the angle shifted, her shot success dropped significantly.
Instead of treating these misses as failures, we treated them as fixable patterns.
Training Adjustments: How We Used RBPostXg to Reshape Her Finishing
Once we had the data, we built a training plan around her specific mistakes instead of general finishing drills.
Here’s what we changed:
1️⃣ Adjusted Her Plant Foot Positioning: Too many of her shots were drifting wide, so we focused on making micro-adjustments in her plant foot to keep her strikes inside the frame.
2️⃣ Simulated Her Misses in Training: Using RBPostXg insights, we recreated game situations where she had previously missed. Instead of just shooting for the sake of reps, we trained the exact moments where she struggled.
3️⃣ Built Pressure-Based Shooting Drills: We added time constraints, defensive pressure, and unpredictable service to force her into decision-making under stress, just like in matches.
4️⃣ Tracked Her Progress in Real Games: After a few weeks of work, we compared her pre- and post-training RBPostXg maps.
The Results: More Goals, Fewer Wasted Shots
🔴 Before Training: A lot of off-target shots that weren’t recorded in traditional xG models. Misses just outside the post. Predictable shooting tendencies.
🟢 After Training: Higher shot accuracy. More goals scored. A drastic improvement in shot placement, leading to actual results in games.
Here’s a before-and-after comparison of her finishing efficiency:
Shot Map Before Training (RBPostXg Analysis)
🔹 More off-target shots, a lot of near misses that xG ignored.
🔹 Too many shots into the keeper’s zone, making saves easy.
🔹 A lack of variation in finishing angles, making her predictable.
✅ Higher shot accuracy, more attempts hitting the corners.
✅ A better balance of near- and far-post finishes.
✅ A significant increase in actual goals scored.
Why This Changes Everything for Individual Development
Most coaches focus on what went in, but the reality is, a player’s misses are more valuable than their goals when it comes to development.
By using RBPostXg, we can:
🔹 Identify patterns in missed shots instead of writing them off.
🔹 Refine biomechanics and decision-making using real data.
🔹 Develop custom drills based on high-value opportunities instead of generic shooting exercises.
This is why I’m obsessed with RBPostXg right now, it’s a game-changer for serious players.
Final Thoughts: The Future of Data-Driven Finishing
If you’re a player or coach still relying only on xG, you’re missing half the picture.
RBPostXg allows us to track every shot, on target or not, and extract valuable insights to refine finishing technique. It’s not about taking more shots, it’s about making sure every shot is a quality attempt.
This is the kind of work that separates elite strikers from average forwards.
If you want to start training smarter, not harder, let’s get to work. The data doesn’t lie.
Let’s turn wasted chances into goals.